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Category: Food for thought

“We Are What We Choose”

Link to original article here.

Remarks by Jeff Bezos, as delivered to the Class of 2010 Baccalaureate
May 30, 2010

As a kid, I spent my summers with my grandparents on their ranch in Texas. I helped fix windmills, vaccinate cattle, and do other chores. We also watched soap operas every afternoon, especially “Days of our Lives.” My grandparents belonged to a Caravan Club, a group of Airstream trailer owners who travel together around the U.S. and Canada. And every few summers, we’d join the caravan. We’d hitch up the Airstream trailer to my grandfather’s car, and off we’d go, in a line with 300 other Airstream adventurers. I loved and worshipped my grandparents and I really looked forward to these trips. On one particular trip, I was about 10 years old. I was rolling around in the big bench seat in the back of the car. My grandfather was driving. And my grandmother had the passenger seat. She smoked throughout these trips, and I hated the smell.

At that age, I’d take any excuse to make estimates and do minor arithmetic. I’d calculate our gas mileage — figure out useless statistics on things like grocery spending. I’d been hearing an ad campaign about smoking. I can’t remember the details, but basically the ad said, every puff of a cigarette takes some number of minutes off of your life: I think it might have been two minutes per puff. At any rate, I decided to do the math for my grandmother. I estimated the number of cigarettes per days, estimated the number of puffs per cigarette and so on. When I was satisfied that I’d come up with a reasonable number, I poked my head into the front of the car, tapped my grandmother on the shoulder, and proudly proclaimed, “At two minutes per puff, you’ve taken nine years off your life!”

I have a vivid memory of what happened, and it was not what I expected. I expected to be applauded for my cleverness and arithmetic skills. “Jeff, you’re so smart. You had to have made some tricky estimates, figure out the number of minutes in a year and do some division.” That’s not what happened. Instead, my grandmother burst into tears. I sat in the backseat and did not know what to do. While my grandmother sat crying, my grandfather, who had been driving in silence, pulled over onto the shoulder of the highway. He got out of the car and came around and opened my door and waited for me to follow. Was I in trouble? My grandfather was a highly intelligent, quiet man. He had never said a harsh word to me, and maybe this was to be the first time? Or maybe he would ask that I get back in the car and apologize to my grandmother. I had no experience in this realm with my grandparents and no way to gauge what the consequences might be. We stopped beside the trailer. My grandfather looked at me, and after a bit of silence, he gently and calmly said, “Jeff, one day you’ll understand that it’s harder to be kind than clever.”

What I want to talk to you about today is the difference between gifts and choices. Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a choice. Gifts are easy — they’re given after all. Choices can be hard. You can seduce yourself with your gifts if you’re not careful, and if you do, it’ll probably be to the detriment of your choices.

This is a group with many gifts. I’m sure one of your gifts is the gift of a smart and capable brain. I’m confident that’s the case because admission is competitive and if there weren’t some signs that you’re clever, the dean of admission wouldn’t have let you in.

Your smarts will come in handy because you will travel in a land of marvels. We humans — plodding as we are — will astonish ourselves. We’ll invent ways to generate clean energy and a lot of it. Atom by atom, we’ll assemble tiny machines that will enter cell walls and make repairs. This month comes the extraordinary but also inevitable news that we’ve synthesized life. In the coming years, we’ll not only synthesize it, but we’ll engineer it to specifications. I believe you’ll even see us understand the human brain. Jules Verne, Mark Twain, Galileo, Newton — all the curious from the ages would have wanted to be alive most of all right now. As a civilization, we will have so many gifts, just as you as individuals have so many individual gifts as you sit before me.

How will you use these gifts? And will you take pride in your gifts or pride in your choices?

I got the idea to start Amazon 16 years ago. I came across the fact that Web usage was growing at 2,300 percent per year. I’d never seen or heard of anything that grew that fast, and the idea of building an online bookstore with millions of titles — something that simply couldn’t exist in the physical world — was very exciting to me. I had just turned 30 years old, and I’d been married for a year. I told my wife MacKenzie that I wanted to quit my job and go do this crazy thing that probably wouldn’t work since most startups don’t, and I wasn’t sure what would happen after that. MacKenzie (also a Princeton grad and sitting here in the second row) told me I should go for it. As a young boy, I’d been a garage inventor. I’d invented an automatic gate closer out of cement-filled tires, a solar cooker that didn’t work very well out of an umbrella and tinfoil, baking-pan alarms to entrap my siblings. I’d always wanted to be an inventor, and she wanted me to follow my passion.

I was working at a financial firm in New York City with a bunch of very smart people, and I had a brilliant boss that I much admired. I went to my boss and told him I wanted to start a company selling books on the Internet. He took me on a long walk in Central Park, listened carefully to me, and finally said, “That sounds like a really good idea, but it would be an even better idea for someone who didn’t already have a good job.” That logic made some sense to me, and he convinced me to think about it for 48 hours before making a final decision. Seen in that light, it really was a difficult choice, but ultimately, I decided I had to give it a shot. I didn’t think I’d regret trying and failing. And I suspected I would always be haunted by a decision to not try at all. After much consideration, I took the less safe path to follow my passion, and I’m proud of that choice.

Tomorrow, in a very real sense, your life — the life you author from scratch on your own — begins.

How will you use your gifts? What choices will you make?

Will inertia be your guide, or will you follow your passions?

Will you follow dogma, or will you be original?

Will you choose a life of ease, or a life of service and adventure?

Will you wilt under criticism, or will you follow your convictions?

Will you bluff it out when you’re wrong, or will you apologize?

Will you guard your heart against rejection, or will you act when you fall in love?

Will you play it safe, or will you be a little bit swashbuckling?

When it’s tough, will you give up, or will you be relentless?

Will you be a cynic, or will you be a builder?

Will you be clever at the expense of others, or will you be kind?

I will hazard a prediction. When you are 80 years old, and in a quiet moment of reflection narrating for only yourself the most personal version of your life story, the telling that will be most compact and meaningful will be the series of choices you have made. In the end, we are our choices. Build yourself a great story. Thank you and good luck!

Picks & Shovels

Reading more about options lately has shone another light on the reality of things around us.  Options are one of what’s called a “derivative financial instrument”, in that it has no value in and of itself – it derives its value from its underlying instrument, the equity on which it is based on.

This “X deriving its value from an underlying Y” is an interesting concept that like many others, can be taken and viewed in a broader perspective.  How many of us are able to look at a company and discern the underlying instruments and industries that serve it?

Eg.  Amazon & Apple

When Amazon announces they had a record quarter for their Kindle Fire, and / or Apple announces record sales for their new iPad, we are led to think that one of them has emerged the “winner”.  But who truly “won”?  FedEx & UPS, the shipping and logistics companies that delivered all the goods from point A to point B did.

Eg.  ExxonMobil & Royal Dutch Shell

EM and RDS announce record profits for the quarter.  But who won?  The pipeline and trucking companies that delivered the oil / gas from rigs to refineries and stations did.

A popular investment metaphor is that when the gold rush first started, the people who became the richest the fastest weren’t the prospectors who discovered the gold-rich land, but the earliest proprietors of picks and shovels.  This combines the main principles of economic success – understanding supply and demand + being at the right place at the right time.

The lowest common denominators may take a few moments to discern, but once found, are impossible to ignore.  Everything manufactured and built came from a company – but what companies serve the often overlooked common denominator?

Eg.  What do Motorola, Apple, Samsung, Dell, HP, and many more have in common?
All have products that use Gorilla Glass for their screens – from Corning of USA.

Eg.  What do 3 of the world’s tallest buildings (Burj Khalifa, Taipei 101, and Petronas Twin Towers) all have in common?
All were built by the same General Contractor – Samsung C&T of South Korea.

Interesting.

Don’t Follow Your Passion, Follow Your Effort

Great, great, great article by Mark Cuban, billionaire entrepreneur.  This thought has been percolating in my head for some time; he could not have worded it better.  The fact that it’s coming from he of Dallas Mavericks and SharkTank fame lends alot of gravity to this notion, in my mind.  I’d normally just put a link up, but I wanted easy access to it here.

by Mark Cuban original link here

I hear it all the time from people. “I’m passionate about it.” “I’m not going to quit, It’s my passion”. Or I hear it as advice to students and others “Follow your passion”.

What a bunch of BS.  ”Follow Your Passion” is easily the worst advice you could ever give or get.

Why ? Because everyone is passionate about something. Usually more than 1 thing.  We are born with it. There are always going to be things we love to do. That we dream about doing. That we really really want to do with our lives. Those passions aren’t worth a nickel.

Think about all the things you have been passionate about in your life. Think about all those passions that you considered making a career out of or building a company around.  How many were/are there ? Why did you bounce from one to another ?  Why were you not able to make a career or business out of any of those passions ? Or if you have been able to have some success, what was the key to the success.? Was it the passion or the effort you put in to your job or company ?

If you really want to know where you destiny lies, look at where you apply your time.

Time is the most valuable asset you don’t own. You may or may not realize it yet, but how you use or don’t use your time is going to be the best indication of where your future is going to take you .

Let me make this as clear as possible

1. When you work hard at something you become good at it.

2. When you become good at doing something, you will enjoy it more.

3. When you enjoy doing something, there is a very good chance you will become passionate or more passionate about it

4. When you are good at something, passionate and work even harder to excel and be the best at it, good things happen.

Don’t follow your passions, follow your effort. It will lead you to your passions and to success, however you define it.

Vietghanistan

I liked this article on war.

CNN Opinion : “Why are we still in Vietghanistan?”

A Disturbing Trend

As I read and learn more about the workings of companies (for investment purposes), a common theme hit me and left me cold – the preservation of ignorance.

Ironically enough, I’ve found through my educating myself that the commercial world’s viability depends on the preservation of ignorance.  In other words, it is in businesses’ best interests to keep consumers in the dark.  By becoming the provider of light, they are then able to shine a path to profits.  The lemmings obediently shuffle along the illuminated path, and though there may be obstacles in the way, it is better to go through hardship in the light than risk everything in the darkness.

“If you’re good at something, never do it for free.”
The Joker

The Glass is Half Full

Been awhile since my last post – has been interesting. Here are some thoughts:

- The time taken for people to respond to requests directly correlates to how much (they think) they get in return. Unless they are great friends, in which case they will do you great favors because they are investing in your potential. But realize that potential quickly. No one invests continuously in ‘promise’ without any returns.

- Trance music is a great paradox – it has magical properties that both amp me up and cool me down; it is the same, yet different every time.

- There is always a good side to things. Either change your surroundings to suit your mood, or change your mood to suit your surroundings. The secret to happiness is not in doing what one likes, but in liking what one does.

- Hopped on a plane with nothing but phones, iPod. First time going through security without any luggage whatsoever. Nice to know there is a company willing to fly you out just to talk to you.

- Tap water where I am in Montana is murky and likely to be carcinogenic from all the chemicals pumped into the ground to facilitate the oil drilling and fracking processes going on all over the place here. Back to bottled water lifestyle.

Weighting

For better or worse, human beings are a competitive species.  We compare and pass judgment on everything, from who has the most money to who has the curliest hair.  Comparisons are done by forming one’s own opinions, and /or obtaining feedback from others.

We begin comparing early on, when we first realize the criteria others use for comparison.  It starts with the explicit, eg. outward appearance – “He is fat.  She is thin.” etc.  Then we begin measuring the implicit, eg. EQ – “He can’t handle stress.  She has a lot going on, but she handles herself well.”

As time goes by, we begin selecting the criteria we care about for ourselves, ie. what we think truly applies / matters to us, and discarding those that do not.  We justify letting some criteria go unmonitored with sayings such as “nobody’s perfect”, and “you can’t have your cake and eat it too.”  I agree with this approach – putting lots of effort in a few things is better than putting little effort in lots of things.

The next level is when we grasp the concept of weighting.  We all already have a subconscious understanding of this – some people’s opinions matter more than others.  It is when we realize that we are in control over how much others influence us that our thoughts begin to change.  Some of us will never reach this stage – suffocated by others, never allowed to breathe fresh air.  Those of us that do achieve independent thinking need to appreciate and be grateful that we were allowed to / given the opportunity to breathe and think different (for ourselves).

Assign weights prudently.  Continually evaluate the weighting assignments – there shouldn’t be much fluctuation day to day – if this person matters a lot one day and not so much the next, their weighting should be reduced.  Find and appreciate the people who matter a lot, regardless of what day it is.

Metrics

Anyone with access to the internet typically has at least one email account, one social media account, and potentially numerous other accounts with various retailers and service providers.

“If you are not paying for it, you are the product.”

The information world is becoming increasingly aware and more capable of harvesting information from its users.  It is a beautiful cycle – initial users give up a little of their information.  Said information is used to tailor specific content to be served.  Users like what they see, and give up more information.  Most service providers don’t mind forgoing payment(s) earlier on in the relationship in favor of gathering more data, whereas some confident ones make users both pay and give up their (unknowingly) precious information.

The illusion of choice has grown bigger than ever before.  It used to be that users had to explicitly consent to their information being gathered.  Now, due to the convoluted nature of EULAs, users can’t be bothered to read through 42 pages of legal jargon.  That being said, users are typically willing to agree to whatever is presented to them, given that their usage / wallet is not impacted in a noticeably significant way.

What does this mean for the world going forward?

There will be a surplus of data that will need to be managed.  If knowledge is power, the ones who provide / manage the knowledge will be all powerful.  Data will soon become a commodity on par with food and water.  The future lies in the hands of programmers, database managers, and consultants with a statistical background.  Businesses will need to adopt quick-change models based on powerful simulation software.  With all the data available, and processing speeds constantly increasing, there is no reason that every business question / hypothesis cannot first be modeled and tested using sophisticated simulation / modeling software.  The results of these simulations and models will then have to be quickly translated into actionable plans – companies capable of executing these plans the quickest will have the advantage.

With all the world’s knowledge stored in databases and clouds housed in massive data centers, energy consumption will increase.  Systems / people dependent on that knowledge will pay a premium to ensure the link between them and their knowledge is not disrupted and / or destroyed.  Fundamentals such as space, cooling systems, energy storage and regulation systems, and discovery / development of new energy sources will be priorities.

How will this affect the non-electronic industries, eg. arts?

I feel the arts will be increasingly absorbed into the electronic world.  The expression of creativity will shift from the brush and canvas to the stylus and tablet.  The pen and paper will be replaced by the keyboard and monitor.  As a 90′s child, the world I grew up in felt like a 60 / 40 split between the sciences and the arts.  The world my children will be in (whoa, confident) will likely be at least an 80 / 20 split, if not 90 / 10.  Initial thoughts would be that artistic skills and non-electronic expression would go down in value, but the rules of supply and demand dictate that the opposite will be true.  Skilled artisans and teachers of the arts will decrease in number, therefore increasing demand – and the prices they would charge for their services along with it.  I suppose it would be the ultimate irony (but strangely not too far-fetched) to imagine children being sent to centers of learning (or online classes!) to be taught how to play outside.

So should I drop everything and start becoming a master in pottery?  Hard to say.  There’s also an interesting article on how to find happiness, you need to forget about passion from the Harvard Business Review.  Solve big, relevant, pressing problems and reap such rewards.  Solve small, irrelevant, non-urgent problems and reap such rewards as well.

But I digress.

Metrics are going to be a big (and bigger) part of our world whether we like it or not.  It is in our best interest to learn how to obtain and interpret data; how we use (or not use) the data is another story.

30/40/30

Besides Pareto’s Law, the other percentage “rule” I’ve learned about and come to like is the 30/40/30 rule.  I typically apply this rule with regard to acceptance rate of a certain idea by a group of people.

30% will agree and be supportive
40% will be on the fence and may swing either way
30% will disagree and will not be convinced otherwise

So out of every 10 people you interact with, 3 will share your opinions, 4 will be willing to listen but must be convinced, and the other 3 will disagree with you.  The condition is that the feedback obtained has to be authentic; true.  Without truth, the experiment is invalid.   So first strive for authentic feedback, then work on how to convert the 4 on the fence.

The Anti-Social Network

Oxymoron, lol.

Been off FB for a month and a week now.

I’m still unsure of what triggered this shift in perception.  Maybe it was me looking too deeply in the whole “be with people you want to be like” thing.  I am easily influenced, to the point of not having to talk to someone – a status update would send me into all sorts of self-searching.  I guess I was not seeing anything I liked thinking about.  Or maybe it was exactly what I needed – a push to go outside my box that was the online world – the ultimate irony.

It wasn’t nice to waste time either.  I wasted at least 2 hours a day since 2006 looking at / thinking about Facebook.  What did I gain from it?  Questionable.  What did I lose?  Lots of time.  Precious time.  There are times when we need support from many, there are times when we need support from a few, there are times when we need to be alone.  The trick is recognizing which of the times we are in and making the conditions ideal for such a time.

I have no doubt I’ll be back on it someday, after I grow out of this isolation and self-improvement phase.

Not yet.  Lots of things to cross off the list.

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