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I recently read about an interesting idea called “Risk Homeostasis”, an idea expounded upon by a certain Dr. Gerald J. S. Wilde, from Queen’s University in Ontario, Canada.

Before we get into that, let’s talk a little about the words separately – “Risk” & “Homeostasis”

• To take a risk - to expose oneself to a potential loss
• Target risk - the level of risk a person chooses to accept in order to maximize the overall expected benefit from an activity
• Homeostasis - a regulating process that keeps the outcome close to the target by compensating for disturbing external influences.  For example, the human body core temperature is homeostatically maintained within relatively narrow limits despite major variations in the temperature of the surrounding air.

With that, Dr. Wilde’s theory of Risk Homeostasis essentially says that we all have a certain preset/predetermined level of risk acceptance – an equilibrium, if you will – and that we will act consciously or subconsciously to preserve this level of risk exposure.

In his book, Target Risk 2: A New Psychology of Safety and Health (PDE, 2001), Dr. Wilde makes an example of the our current traffic safety and regulation efforts to illustrate the idea of risk homeostasis.  Long story short, he says that safety advances like ABS, airbags, seatbelt laws, speed regulations, etc. do not achieve what they intend to because they don’t fail to influence people’s willingness to take risk.

In other words, the safer you make me (ABS, seatbelt), the more risk I am willing to take (drive faster, weave through traffic) – to maintain the equilibrium.

I think this is a brilliant notion that can be extended into all facets of life.

The real question then becomes what is the level of our risk equilibrium, and how do we effectively influence it?

For example:

If the true requirement to graduate with a degree in engineering was simply to score a C in every class, my subconscious would adjust its acceptable risk level to high – ie. Although I would consciously make an effort to study the material, my subconscious would allow me to deviate from this to a high degree, or at least a degree that is deemed high by it.

I like it.  No amount of safety devices (studying, seatbelt) can stop an individual from taking his or her predetermined amount of risk (partying, driving fast).  So what’s the key to change? Maybe it’s simply a matter of rephrasing the statement?

What was done cannot always be undone.

But if it doesn’t concern anyone else, ie. only yourself, it usually can.

Adjust your level of acceptable risk so the outcome of your actions always fall within a known confidence interval.